We're officially in the final month of MLB’s regular season, with most teams having fewer than 25 games left to play. There is no division leader with a double-digit game cushion, five of the six divisions featuring a maximum of a six-game gap and three with a three-game maximum. September should bring lots of excitement down to the final weekend, so we prompted some of SI’s MLB writers to reflect on what’s transpired so far this season and what may lie ahead.
1. Which team are you most confident about penciling in for a World Series berth?
Tom Verducci: Los Angeles Dodgers. They can look almost bored at times. They have not been a good team on the road (33–33), against lefties (19–20) or the past two months (22–27). But they know how to play October baseball: swing-and-miss starting pitchers, home run hitters and a deep bullpen. Under manager Dave Roberts, they have won four of the past eight NL pennants and posted a .560 winning percentage in the playoffs. Respect the pedigree.
Stephanie Apstein: They had a terrible July and a mediocre August, but the Dodgers feel like they're about to get hot and stay hot. This is what they do: look sort of disappointing down the stretch, then get all their injured guys back and start beating the snot out of teams. With Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow back, they have six legitimate starting pitchers, and the bullpen is beginning to look dangerous again. Once Max Muncy and Tommy Edman return, they should be at close to full strength, and their full strength is better than anyone else's.
Ryan Phillips: I know it's boring to say this, but the Dodgers. They're getting healthy at the right time, Mookie Betts is starting to turn it on and Shohei Ohtani is improving on the mound. If Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow can round into form, L.A.'s bullpen will be the team's only concern.
2. Which team currently in a playoff position is most susceptible to a September collapse?
TV: Seattle Mariners. They batted .228 in August. They have the third-most strikeouts in the majors and the most among contenders. Entering this week, they were 2–9 in their last two Eastern trips with more traps ahead at Tampa Bay and Atlanta—then lost their first game against the Rays on Monday. And they are too reliant on Cal Raleigh continuing his magical season while his OPS declined a third straight month in August. The Mariners are 31–10 when Raleigh homers but 42–55 when he doesn’t go yard.
SA: I don't think they'll actually play their way out of the postseason, but the New York Yankees are hard to watch these days, even when they're beating up on the likes of the Nationals and White Sox. They have gotten the worst catcher production in the sport. Shortstop Anthony Volpe has as many errors (7) as walks since the All-Star break, and his .210 batting average is second-worst in baseball among qualified hitters. And the bullpen ERA since the break has been 4.60.
RP: The New York Mets, simply because they've collapsed several times already this year. There is no reason they should be as inconsistent as they have been. At one point, they lost 10 of 11 in June and 14 of 16 during a stretch of July and August. They have also lost three of their last five. Are we sure their four-game cushion over the Reds will hold?
3. Who's an underrated awards contender deserving of more recognition?
TV: The American League Cy Young Race is more than a two-pitcher race. Tarik Skubal has a slight lead over Garrett Crochet, but don’t forget about Hunter Brown. With a 1.72 ERA in his past six starts, he is surging into September. Here is how they rank in various league categories:
Skubal
Crochet
Brown
ERA
1
3
2
ERA-
1
2
3
Strikeouts
1
2
3
Innings
1
2
7
FIP
1
2
3
WHIP
1
7
5
K:BB
1
4
6
WPA
5
1
8
Quality Starts
2
2
2
SA: No one cares because AL MVP is a two-man race between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, and the Royals are probably going to miss the playoffs, but it's very possible that the best season in the AL this year is going to belong to Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. He's 25, he's the best defensive shortstop in the game by most measures and he's the only player in baseball with at least 30 doubles and 25 stolen bases—and he actually has 41 doubles and 34 stolen bases. I'm just saying, don't forget about him.
RP: Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal have been runaway favorites to win the Cy Young in both leagues for three months, but Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez has quietly caught up with Skenes in Baseball Reference’s version of WAR (6.4), putting them in a tie for second in all of baseball trailing only Aaron Judge. While he's unlikely to overtake Skenes, he deserves consideration. In 27 starts, he is 11–5 with a 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 181 strikeouts against 41 walks in 169 1/3 innings. With Zack Wheeler out, he'll enter October as Philadelphia's No. 1 starter.
4. What's surprised you the most about the regular season so far?
TV: For the first time in 20 years, the strikeout rate has declined four a second straight season—and for the fourth time in the past five full seasons. The changes are incremental, but baseball has put the brakes on the runaway strikeout from 2006-19, when it went up 14 straight years. The level of strikeouts per game this year is the lowest it’s been since 2017.
SA: Atlanta's complete ineptitude. The Orioles have been terrible, too, but at least they're getting bad seasons from basically all their good players. Atlanta has scored the 15th most runs in the sport—that's not championship-caliber, but it won't usually put you in position for a top-five draft pick, either. Unfortunately you also have to pitch half the time, and they do that worse than almost anyone else. (It doesn't help that they have an entire good starting rotation on the injured list.) It's just been a bummer of a season for a young team that should be in its prime.
RP: How wide open the World Series picture is. Before the season, most believed the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets and Braves would battle for the NL, while the Yankees and Orioles had tons of buzz in the AL. Fast forward to September, and the Brewers and Tigers are the best teams in baseball, the Dodgers are barely ahead of the Padres in the NL West, and the Yankees and Mets are fighting for playoff spots—with the Braves long out of contention. Every team currently occupying a playoff spot is a legitimate threat to take home the title. It's been years since we could say that.
5. Make a bold prediction for September.
TV: Paul Skenes of the Pirates will break the no-hitter drought. The last no-hitter was Sept. 4, 2024, when three Cubs pitchers no-hit the Pirates. The last season without a no-no was 2005. Skenes was pulled with a no-hitter last year once after six innings and once after seven. The governors are off.
SA: The Mets will win the NL East. The Phillies have had a rough few weeks, between the news that Zack Wheeler, probably the best pitcher in baseball, is out for months as he recovers from thoracic outlet surgery, and the fact that they keep losing to worse teams; meanwhile, New York swept Philly last week and called up two hot young pitching prospects.
RP: The Mariners will overtake the Astros to win the AL West. Houston just won 8 of 17 during a stretch with 14 games against the Rockies, Orioles and Angels. Their September schedule gets considerably more difficult, while the Mariners have the sixth-easiest remaining slate. That will help Seattle to its first division title since 2001.